San Francisco Giants Rule 5 preview: Will they add anyone to the roster?

This offseason the Giants should be focused on taking big swings, but when it comes to roster construction, the small moves still matter. Perhaps no “small move” deadline is more scrutinized each offseason than the Rule 5 protection deadline, which is the date clubs must protect any Rule 5-eligible prospects by adding them to their 40-man roster. This year, the deadline falls on Nov. 14.

A lot goes into deciding which players to protect and which ones to leave eligible. In the last Rule 5 draft, only 15 players were selected in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 draft, so many players who are left unprotected will remain in their organizations as non-roster players. Teams have to weigh the risk of losing a prospect with the desire to keep 40-man roster spots available for players they need for the upcoming season. In other words, a prospect can still be valued by their organization and be left unprotected if the organization believes the player isn’t likely to be picked in the draft.

So who’s eligible for the Rule 5 draft anyway? Players are eligible if they are 1) not on their team’s 40-man roster and 2) experiencing their fourth Rule 5 draft if they were either 19 or older on June 5 of the year they signed their first professional contract, or experiencing their fifth Rule 5 draft if they were 18 or younger on June 5 of the year they signed their first professional contract. (CliffsNotes version: players who were 19 or older and signed in 2020 or earlier, or players who were 18 or younger and signed in 2019 or earlier, are eligible.)

For the Giants, that means college selections from their 2020 draft class are eligible for the first time, as are their high school and young junior college selections from the 2019 draft and international signings from that year. Plus any prospects who have been acquired or emerged from earlier draft classes who weren’t protected in past seasons. Players selected in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 draft must remain on the selecting team’s big-league roster for the entire season or be offered back to their original organization for a fee.

This year’s Rule 5 draft pool will be smaller than most years, which could change the calculus for some teams making their 40-man roster decisions. The reason the pool is smaller is that this is the first year of eligibility for players who signed at 19 years or older who were selected in the 2020 MLB Draft, which was only five rounds long. Up until this year, the pool was being drawn from draft classes of at least 40 rounds. Will the smaller pool change how teams approach their roster strategy? We’ll have to wait and see. The Giants have already added three of their seven 2020 draft picks to their 40-man roster (Patrick Bailey, Casey Schmitt and Kyle Harrison).

Under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, the Giants have paid as much attention to the margins of their roster as any organization in baseball. Roster spots are valuable real estate and are rarely given to players who aren’t expected to contribute to the major-league team at some point during the upcoming season.

Over the past five years, the Giants have been relatively conservative about their Rule 5 protection decisions, taking risks that several solid prospects can remain unprotected and not lost in the draft process. Thus far, that strategy has generally paid off. Last year, the Giants lost one player in the major-league portion of the draft (Nick Avila), but he was returned to the organization before opening day. (They did lose eight players in the minor-league portion of the draft. Eligible players not on the Triple-A roster can be selected in the minor-league portion. Teams don’t make their offseason Triple-A rosters public, so it’s nearly impossible to know heading into the Rule 5 draft who might be available in the minor-league portion.) Under Zaidi, the Giants have frequently left room for themselves to make at least one selection in the major-league portion of the draft. Given the four open roster spots, chances are the Giants won’t want to protect more than two or three players at next week’s deadline.

They may not need to anyway. Whereas last year the Giants had top prospects Marco Luciano and Luis Matos to protect, this year, there are no slam dunk candidates for protection. It wouldn’t be shocking if they protected no players at the deadline, though they have a few difficult decisions to make. Let’s see who they might consider protecting and who is likely to be left available.

Grant McCray from his days with the San Jose Giants. (Shelly Valenzuela / San Jose Giants)

Players they’ll strongly consider protecting

Victor Bericoto, OF: The Giants graduated a number of position-player prospects to the big leagues in 2023, and while they all bring significant tools to the roster, with the exception of Marco Luciano, none of them rate out as plus in the power department. In general, the Giants’ 26-man roster experienced a bit of a power outage in 2023. Bericoto — he of just 51 career games above the A-ball level — isn’t likely to fix that problem by himself in 2024, but he very well could be part of a long-term solution.

Often overshadowed by fellow 2018 international signees like Luciano and Matos, Bericoto came into his own in 2023, hitting an organization-best 27 home runs in 122 games between High-A Eugene and Double-A Richmond. He traded some on-base acumen for that power and had only a .770 OPS during his 51-game stint in Richmond, but Bericoto will be just 22 next season and is just starting to tap into his power. One could make the argument that the Giants’ depth chart has lacked a bit of variety in the past few years, favoring hitters who control the strike zone over hitters who may offer something else plus, like power or speed. Adding Bericoto would bring a bit of a wrinkle to the roster given his overall profile. Then again, he’s an outfielder limited to the corners who doesn’t have a long track record above A-ball, so the Giants may be able to get away with not protecting him.

Victor Bericoto gets us on the board first 🔥 pic.twitter.com/c7xHm3itu9

— Richmond Flying Squirrels (@GoSquirrels) September 5, 2023

Aeverson Arteaga, SS: One thing that is hard to remember with Rule 5 protection decisions is that excellent prospects can sometimes be left unprotected if there is a sense that no other team would use a major-league roster spot on that player all season. So the trick becomes — especially with younger prospects — how do you assess the needs of other organizations vis-á-vis your own roster needs? Arteaga is a good example of that conundrum. With Luciano now on the roster, Arteaga is the Giants’ top non-roster shortstop prospect. He is a solid defender with power potential and has more than held his own against older competition throughout his professional career. He also is coming off a .709 OPS in 126 games with Eugene and has never played a game above the High-A level.

Arteaga’s situation is similar to where Matos was at this time last season. The numbers in High A won’t jump off the page at teams, but the upside is not a well-kept secret around the league. The Giants obviously elected to protect Matos, and it proved to be a wise decision, as he jumped all the way to the big leagues in his first option year. As a shortstop with some swing-and-miss issues, Arteaga isn’t as likely to make that leap next season, but he could still be a target for teams not expecting to contend that can use a roster spot on a backup infielder for a year just to get that talent into the organization.

Grant McCray, OF: The same can be said for McCray, who remains one of the Giants’ top non-roster prospects, but also comes into this offseason at least a year away from truly being major-league ready. McCray may be the best defensive center fielder in the Giants’ system and is one of the organization’s top base-stealing threats. Those two tools alone could interest an organization that has room for a fifth outfielder who may not offer much offensively as a rookie but would bring upside for the future.

McCray will be 23 next season. He has stolen 95 bases over the last two seasons and has hit 37 home runs, all while playing outstanding defense. He’s also struck out 241 times, though he’s walked a solid 139 times. Like Bericoto, he doesn’t necessarily fit the prototype of a Giants’ hitter, but he also brings tools that are lacking overall on the current roster. Outfielders can be easier to stash away on major-league rosters than infielders, so McCray may have a slightly stronger case for being protected than Arteaga. Both will be difficult decisions.

Kai-Wei Teng, RHSP: Teng was left unprotected during last year’s Rule 5 draft and wasn’t selected, but there could be a few more teams interested in him now after he had a solid 17-outing stint with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats to end this season. After beginning the year in Double A with a 4.75 ERA in 47 1/3 innings, Teng posted a 4.22 ERA in 79 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. For the season, he struck out 164 in 126 1/3 innings.

Teng will be 25 next season and has seemingly been around forever. He’s always had strike-out stuff (610 in 480 2/3 innings), and he’s proved durable over the years. Teng made some significant improvements this past season, specifically with his ability to limit home runs, allowing just eight over 126 1/3 innings. Command remains his biggest issue — he walked 68 and hit 20 — but the swing-and-miss stuff combined with his ability to throw a lot of innings and his success in a hitter-friendly Triple-A league could make him an intriguing target for other teams. The Giants may have enough upper-level pitching depth to risk losing Teng, but durable arms don’t grow on trees.

Erik Miller, LHRP: As several readers pointed out, I neglected to include Miller in my original list. No excuses, I just missed him when I scanned my list of eligible players.

Acquired in a trade for Yunior Marte from the Phillies, Miller had a 2.45 ERA in 62 1/3 relief innings with Richmond and Sacramento. He struck out 88 and held opposing batters to a .143 BA. He did walk 45 and wasn’t called up late in the season when the Giants’ bullpen was struggling, but as a lefty with this level of success in Triple A, he’d likely get snapped up by another team in the Rule 5 draft, making him a likely addition.

Other notable names likely in the conversation

Nick Avila, RHRP: The Giants actually lost Avila in last year’s Rule 5 draft, only to get him back from the White Sox at the end of spring training. Avila went on to spend the entire season in Triple A, where he went 14-0 (yes, yes, pitcher wins, but still!) with a 3.00 ERA in 72 Pacific Coast League innings. Avila struck out only 64, but he kept the ball in the park and on the ground. The Giants didn’t call on him at all during the season, which is probably a good indication that they’ll risk leaving him exposed to the draft again this year.

Carson Ragsdale, RHSP: Injuries (thoracic outlet surgery and a right elbow strain) have ruined Ragsdale’s last two seasons, but he’s been very impressive when he’s actually been on the mound. The 6-foot-8 right-hander throws hard and has a swing-and-miss breaking ball. Given his injury status, he could be stashed on another team’s 60-day injured list if someone wanted to take a risk on his talent. But given that he’ll turn 26 in May and has thrown just 147 professional innings (and none above A-ball), it’s likely the Giants won’t have to protect Ragsdale to keep him in the system.

R.J. Dabovich, RHRP: Dabovich is in a somewhat similar situation in that he lost most of the 2023 season to injury (a hip tear that required surgery). The biggest difference is that Dabovich had already reached Triple A at the time of the injury, and as a reliever, the jump to the big leagues is less steep than it is for a starter like Ragsdale. Dabovich has a mid-90s fastball that he pairs with a plus breaking ball. He’s struck out 134 in 86 1/3 career innings and has limited opposing batters to a .170 average. But he’s also struggled with command, and that, as much as the hip injury, could keep teams from selecting him in the Rule 5 draft.

Trevor McDonald, RHSP: Injuries limited McDonald to 47 1/3 innings this season — the bulk of which came in Eugene, where he had an 0.96 ERA in 37 2/3 innings. He struck out 51 and walked just 11 while allowing only one home run. That performance came on the heels of a breakout 2022 season in which he had a 2.31 ERA in a swingman role, striking out 120 and walking 42 in 101 1/3 innings. McDonald’s lack of experience (he’s never pitched above A-ball) will likely keep other teams from selecting him, but he’s only 22, he can run his fastball up to 97, he has three secondary pitches that can be effective at times, and he throws strikes. There are less polished pitchers who have been stashed as long relievers on bad teams in other years.

Adrian Sugastey, C: Sugatesy is a very solid catching prospect who hit .298 and struck out just 37 times in 63 games with Eugene last season. He fields his position well and, at 21, is on a good trajectory to make the major leagues by his 23rd birthday. That said, teams can’t hide catchers with minimal upper-level experience on their major-league rosters that easily (unless they play other positions, like Blake Sabol), so Sugastey probably wouldn’t be picked if left unprotected.

Logan Wyatt, 1B: Wyatt’s career seemed stalled out in 2022, when he missed much of the season and had a .531 OPS in 29 games. But he looked like a different player in 2023, appearing in a career-high 117 games and hitting .258/.355/.436 with 17 home runs in a season split between High A and Double A. He also played his trademark good defense at first. Ryan Noda had a similar profile and was taken second in last year’s Rule 5 draft by the Oakland A’s, though Noda showed more power in the minor leagues and had performed at the Triple-A level. Those two factors likely will keep Wyatt with the Giants even if he isn’t added to the 40-man roster, though it’s a great sign for his career that there is even a debate about whether to add him.

Wil Jensen, RHRP: Jensen has a similar profile to Avila — he doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he throws strikes, doesn’t give up many home runs and is very durable. Pitching mostly in long relief for Richmond in 2023, Jensen had a 2.53 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 89 innings. He’s struck out 301 and walked 95 in 284 1/3 career innings. He’s also thrown at least 89 innings in each of the last three seasons. He could intrigue a team the way Avila intrigued the White Sox last winter.

Chris Wright, LHRP: Wright is a left-handed reliever who struck out 65 in 46 innings for Sacramento this season. He also had a 5.28 ERA and walked 47. Wright’s command issues likely will keep him off the Rule 5 radar, but if a team thought they could fix the command, the swing-and-miss arsenal from a left-hander could be intriguing.

Injuries have limited Jairo Pomares since his breakout season with the San Jose Giants in 2021. (Shelly Valenzuela / San Jose Giants)

Other notable Rule 5-eligible prospects

Ryan Murphy, RHSP: Murphy was healthy again after an injury-marred 2022 and had a solid season, but his stats slipped enough from his 2021 peak that he isn’t in danger of being selected.

Jimmy Glowenke, IF: It was a nice bounce-back season for Glowenke, who spent two-thirds of it in Double A and demonstrated improved on-base skills.

Will Wilson, IF: Wilson posted a .712 OPS in 93 games in Triple A before being sent back to Richmond for the final two months of the season. He ultimately finished with the lowest OPS (.686) of his pro career.

Hunter Bishop, OF: The Giants’ 2019 first-round pick missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the spring.

Jairo Pomares, OF: After a disappointing 2022 season with Eugene, Pomares missed all but nine games in 2023 with leg and back injuries.

Ricardo Genovés, C: Genovés has held his own defensively the last two seasons in Triple A, but his offensive development has stalled despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League for much of his pro career.

Blake Rivera, RHRP: Rivera had a promising return from injury in 2022, but command issues plagued him in a relief role for Richmond in 2023.

Luis Toribio, 1B: Toribio did a nice job cutting his strikeout rate considerably and his stat line was hurt by some bad luck on balls in play, but first basemen who haven’t played above A-ball aren’t usually in high demand in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

Nick Swiney, LHRP: Swiney made the move to the bullpen with Sacramento in 2023, but struggled with his command. He saw his strikeout rate drop significantly and his walk rate go up while posting a solid (for the league) but not spectacular 4.37 ERA.

Brett Auerbach, UT: Auerbach was the talk of the system in 2021, when he hit 17 homers and reached Double A in his pro debut season. He’s struggled the last two seasons with Richmond, however, and found himself back in Eugene midway through 2023. As a catcher who can steal bases and also play the infield and outfield, he’s still an intriguing player but not a likely Rule 5 target.

Matt Frisbee, RHRP: Frisbee moved from the rotation to the bullpen in 2023, posting a 5.10 ERA in 47 2/3 innings between Richmond and Sacramento.

Sean Roby, IF: Roby hit 25 homers for Richmond in 2022, but he struggled with injuries and after a solid midseason return with Eugene, hit .182 in 24 games with Richmond.

Dilan Rosario, IF: Rosario spent most of 2023 with Low-A San Jose, where he hit .251 with a .298 OBP.

Carter Aldrete, UT: Aldrete had a career-best season in 2022 but backslid in 2023, posting a .666 OPS with 13 homers in 104 games for Richmond.

P.J. Hilson, OF: Hilson’s fifth professional season was his first played entirely in full-season ball. He had a .703 OPS and 10 homers with 12 stolen bases in 80 games for San Jose.

Edison Mora, IF: Mora missed all of the 2022 season and appeared in just 53 games split between San Jose and Eugene in 2023. He hit .197 in those games.

(Top photo of Teng with Patrick Bailey in spring training: Abbie Parr / Getty Images)

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